Advanced Commercial Dynamics
A complete forecasting and performance system for e-commerce businesses. From revenue objective to ads budget, from weekly diagnostics to quarterly recalibration.
Book a Free Discovery CallWhy most e-commerce forecasts fail
They start from budget, not from the objective
The question is not "how much can I spend" but "how much do I want to achieve and what does it cost."
No cross-validation
The revenue objective never meets the actual cost per channel. The numbers are never verified against each other.
The forecast dies in January
It is done once and never touched again. No weekly feedback loop.
Efficiency is assumed, not measured
It is assumed that ads ratio will magically improve. With no concrete basis.
How it works
A circular model with built-in validation. Top-down meets bottom-up. When they don't align, you know exactly what to adjust.
Revenue Objective
Set your annual target from admin sales, excluding VAT and returns.
Ads Ratio
Define what percentage of revenue goes to advertising. Realistic, based on historical data.
Budget Split
Calculate total ads budget and split between Google and Meta, adjusted monthly.
Traffic Calculation
Estimate required sessions using seasonal CR and AOV per month.
Cost per Channel
Apply sessions/clicks index and CPC to calculate actual cost.
Validation
Does calculated cost match the budget? If not, adjust CR, AOV, CPC, or channel split.
Continuous monitoring, not guesswork
The weekly diagnostic framework identifies exactly where the chain breaks.
Compare
% revenue achieved vs % time elapsed vs % budget spent. See instantly if you're on track.
Diagnose
Follow the diagnostic tree. Did budget turn into traffic? Did traffic turn into revenue? Find exactly where the chain breaks.
Act
The diagnosis tells you what to fix — offer, bidding, CPC, landing page, or budget allocation. No guessing.
A living system that improves over time
Weekly
Fill in actuals, check deviation.
Monthly
Adjust CR, AOV, CPC, traffic split, sessions/clicks index, Admin vs GA4 ratio.
Quarterly
Review Ads Ratio — is the initial target achievable? Recalibrate revenue and growth.
Yearly
The forecast becomes the historical base for next year.
What's included
Forecast Methodology
Complete PDF documentation of the forecasting system.
Excel Model
4 tabs: Forecast, Detailed Budget, Operational Summary, User Guide.
463 Interconnected Formulas
Color-coded inputs for easy customization and understanding.
Weekly Diagnostic Framework
Decision trees to identify exactly where performance breaks.
Seasonal CR & AOV Methodology
Estimation methodology for conversion rate and average order value by season.
Sessions/Clicks Index
Calibration methodology per channel for accurate traffic planning.
Quarterly Recalibration
Structured process for reviewing and adjusting the forecast every quarter.
Ready to build a forecast that actually works?
Book a free discovery call and we'll walk you through the system.
Book a Free Discovery Call